Obama’s Win: A Death-Knell For 1960s Cultural Politics?

There’s a tidy symmetry in the fact that Obama defeated, in succession, both the Clinton machine and the Rove-Atwater brand of politics that Republicans have honed for so long.

In so doing, Obama defeated not one, but both of the leading practitioners of that 1960s-rooted cultural politics. More to the point, he did this by quite literally running against politics as both those groups practiced it.

(My emphasis)

My only concern: How will our nation survive without its electoral system being used to process baby boomers’ psychological issues?

No time for analysis; just putting the latest poll data out there for people who can’t wait:

M: 4958274609827
O: 4509845618907
M: 6783649347856
O: 296528e76rw50
M: r978ert70q9869
O: w678529874659
M: 1284576197863
O: 4958762345079
M: 8756196745q65
O: 1231231240468
M: 2084702r73045
O: 7614011789650

Bottom line? Time for Dems to worry.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

The latest MNFTIU poll commissioned by David Rees, the hottest new blogger on the scene, shows significant tightening in the widening spectrum of the closing data relative to the opening according to the latest numbers we found in the data when we ran the numbers.

Our new model has 270 beating 269 at least 1,000 times per p-value. (n = 2)

The toplines:

M: 25
O: 3
J: 60 (unbelievable numbers for mystery candidate J!)

For the true poll nerds, here’s the breakdown:

2345q3948579038
q234689789-7349
q45987345903847
250982000023508
2595885822–09-2
209580982039855

(Can you believe the 235 we’re seeing in 2350897? Unbelievable.)

Ladies and gentlemen, the race is officially NOT OVER.

Still awaiting the fax from my uncle, but in the meantime Dems should start worrying . . .

Election-eve feedback from a reader. If I had any doubts that this was the hottest new blog on the scene, they are now gone:

Ever since “Move on UP” was featured on FFO, it has been my canvassing/jogging jam!!!!!!!!!!! This past Sunday, for instance, my roommate and I had to drive out to Starke (20 miles north of Gainesville) to pass out fliers at African-American churches for the last day of early voting in Florida and we listened to that song probably 15 times on the way there to get pumped up since we know we must deliver Florida to Barry in order to ensure the crushing rebuke to the past eight years.

Tomorrow, we’re spending election day knocking on doors of the registered Democrats in our surrounding precincts who haven’t voted yet but first we will jam to “Bring It On Home” and “Move on Up” to get pumped up for the next 13 hours.

So thank you thank you thank you a million times thank you for Friday Face Offs, for crushing all other blogs, for the message from Deepak Chopra (prophetic much?) and also for the entire GYWO collection. We will do this today.

(My emphasis)

This is one race I do feel comfortable calling: MNFTIU WINS IN A LANDSLIDE! HOTTEST NEW BLOG ON THE SCENE, BY A FINAL TALLY OF 10,000 – 0!!!

I think it’s time for Dems to worry.

My latest double-calculator poll calculations show a significant tightening in 4 out of 5 calculator numbers:

1. 5
2. 6
3. 9
4. 2
5. 3

How does Obama pull it off in the face of such numbers?

In the immortal words of Mad Skillz, this race is now “tighter than five virgins in a Volkswagen.”

More reader feedback. This came in late, late last night:

I’m watching “move on up”!!!!!!

All the white people I talked to tonight were so fucking cynical!!!!

FUCK THAT!!! MOVE ON UP!!!!

For the significance of “Move On Up,” click here.

Forgot to include the 9-4 split on the fourth regression model:

9/4 – OHIO
4/1 – FLORIDA district (3.45 / H2)

That changes the weighted average to McCain +3.

Bad news for the Dems.

From a reader:

Picture the scene. It’s 7:30am. Election day. Dawn’s just broken. It’s cold. I’ve just plugged in my iPod. What song comes up from the shuffle?

Fuckin’ BRING IT ON HOME. I was pumped for the rest of the day. It’s probably a sign that a) Obama’s gonna win and b) that your universe-crushingly huge blog has actually intertwined itself with space time, and is now manifesting itself in awesome, topical songs.

(My emphasis.)

What can I say? This blog will destroy all other blogs and pick all future presidents.

THAT’S HOW IT’S GOING TO BE.

NEW ERA.

MNFTIU.CC, NOW YOU KNOW.

(For those who don’t understand the significance of “Bring It On Home,” start here.)

I’ve noticed a real drop-off in polls this morning. Fivethirtyeight.com seems to be taking a nap. (LOL, make sure you run that nap simulation 10,000 times.)

TPM is in total slack-off mode, as far as I can tell.

I guess DailyKos finally ran out of money, because they don’t seem to be commissioning polls anymore.

I’m going to pick up the slack.

I’M COMMISSIONING FIVE POLLS PER DAY FOR THE NEXT THIRTY DAYS. It’s my duty as the hottest blogger on the scene . . .

Early exits from my first poll (referenced below):

ZYX RESULTS (sample size = n/20)
M: 25
O: 25

This race is tightening. I’ve got 5,000 regression polls cross-tabbed to my P-values, and things look tight. That tightness could spread to the baseline numbers and tighten the gap, in which case it could be an uphill tightening for Obama.

I’ll know more when I get the update fax from my uncle who’s monitoring his CB radio for short-wave tightening.

BAD NEWS FOR DEMS: My analysis shows McCain closing the gap in 5,025 of my 20,000 simulations. (I run each election 20,000 times on my calculator.)

He’s running very strong in the following areas:

1. 225001
2. 9696-j (regression mean analysis simulation)
3. 9682111-JY (this is a weighted Kentucky regression; very useful for the first 900 simulations on my calculator)
4. 41999
5. 259903 (this one will be hard for Obama to pull off)
6. AP-2881501
7. 93

I’ll run the numbers one more time before the end of the day. It takes awhile to punch all the data into my calculator, so please be patient!